They just drink it.

Next thing you know, people will be filling their swimming pools.

No inflation is going on right now, the government is trying to stop de-flation. Almost all the experts agree that we may see eventual inflation because of the economic stimulus — that money pumping into our systems. We may have a window of about 12 to 16 months before interest rates will have to rise to control it.  The Fed can and will monitor inflation tightly 24/7 and may in fact want to see a bit of inflation, say 2 to 4%, anything but hyperflation or deflation.

The banks still aren’t lending, what will it take to move them? Maybe higher interest rates. Cox doesn’t think you can pass laws forcing banks to lend money.

“When the risks and rewards are in balance, they will lend,” he says.

Our day of reckoning for the stimulus package will be when we convince China and Japan that treasuries are worth buying.

Why are the banks doling out TARP funds to the “troubled” banks rather than the solid banks, so the solid banks could lend the funds?

Good question, said Cox.

Unemployment is starting to affect everyone, even in the higher net worth classes. Though Texas thankfully lags the nation in unemployment, layoffs may not be over yet. Two solid businesses now: healthcare and education.

And these men think Americans’ spending habits have changed dramatically, maybe forever for a generation. Just as they did after the Great Depression, people are tightening their belts. Whether they keep them tight and how many years they live lean depends on how affected they are by this economic downturn, how long it lasts. We may not see mega leverage for another twenty years.

Higher taxes may force people out of states like New York and California, and we could see another wave of  sunbirds heading here for our sensibly valued homes. Watch: commercial real estate failings. Be glad we live in a city that continues to attract business and generate jobs as well as technology (intelligent medical systems being developed at Texas Instruments) and varied corporate headquarters. Buffalo, New York was home to the largest number of wealthy individuals in the U.S…  once upon a time.

Another client paid a local “law firm” that advertises on a local Dallas radio station $3,000 to get his mortgage modified; the firms first piece of advice was to intentionally get behind on his mortgage. The mortgage company posted him for foreclosure, the modification people told him that they couldn’t help him. Now he now faces the prospect of losing his home if he does not pay three months of payments all at once, plus all of the bank’s legal fees related to the foreclosure, and he’s out the $3,000. What a scam.

Then there’s the “foreclosure rescue specialist” called North American Foreclosure, LLP.  Folks need to be careful, says Polk, a bankruptcy attorney and home foreclosure expert for 15 years.

“Sadly, a person will try whatever they have to in order to keep their home and a roof over their kid’s head.  And who can blame them?,” says Polk. “But a con artist can sense that kind of desperation.   The number of so-called “loan modification counselors” has quadrupled in the last 18 months as the hucksters have opened up shop.  These fly-by-night operators target desperate homeowners– the easiest mark, but also the least able to afford such a scam.”

A -$8000 tax credit for first-time buyers, l like very much. Assuming this will work like a section 179 deduction and come right off the taxes, not add 5 more pages or 6 hours of CPA billable hours to the tax return, essentially using tax dollars to help fund the home purchase. 

F- Revamping U.S. bankruptcy rules, giving judges the power to reduce mortgage payments and set lower interest rates. Excuse me, but I think part of our problem was that banks got too big, unregulated and complex. So now we are going to let judges play banker? This will slow down lending and banks will have to recoup their losses from somewhere —charge more to the customers who pay their bills, or higher PMI or PMI for everyone or higher interest rates.

Not fair, folks.

C – The government will match reductions lenders make to keep borrowers home payments at 31% of their income. What income — stated income? Does that include alimony?

Incomplete – Flushing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with $900 billion.

It now appears the economic stimulus bill will deliver be some significant benefits to those wishing to purchase or refinance a home. These include:

Ø A true first-time homebuyer tax credit in the amount of $7500 available for a qualified purchase of a principal residence between January 1 and September 1, 2009. I say “true” since, this time, the “credit” will not have to be repaid by the homeowner!

Ø FHA, Fannie and Freddie loan limits will be revised. While specifics have not been released, reports indicate the 2008 limits will be reinstated for 2009 with certain limited exceptions.

Ø Foreclosure mitigation and neighborhood stabilization is forthcoming. In essence, this means that there will be some as-yet-undetermined method for funding state and local efforts to abate foreclosure and stabilize and redevelop neighborhoods. of abandoned and foreclosed homes are authorized.

“Last month’s median house sales price, $129,000, was the lowest since early 2001.”

PRE 911. OK, but look at this:

“There are 37,224 homes offered in the Realtors’ Multiple Listing Service, meaning the area has about a six-month supply, which is considered a healthy inventory.”

Knock knock, Appraisal District, who’s there? 2001 home values…

P. O’B Montgomery & Company

“We are looking at doing whatever makes sense,” Phil Montgomery told me today, when asked if the residences would resume construction. “The market has clearly changed.”

Prescott’s Jud Pankey says the garage is complete and open, and construction attention will now focus on the courtyard. This month’s Architectural Digest feature on the hotel and colorful designer, Carleton Varney and his mentor, Dorothy Draper, has generated national interest in the project; Varney is coming back to Dallas in the spring to create more buzz.

If another developer were going to be engaged for this project, the most likely time would be when construction financing is being negotiated, said Pankey by email.

“Phil Montgomery introduced me to Apollo almost ten years ago, and we all try and assist each other when faced with a challenge,” wrote Pankey.

What we are doing, said Montgomery, is fairly routine.

According to sources, Al Coker is no longer handling marketing for The Stoneleigh Heritage Residences; Cynthia Pharr is handling media relations.

But what about people who bought with zero down? Didn’t they have to pay P.M.I? Or were they, instead, encouraged to get second mortgages so that instead of having an insurance policy on default, they would screw over two banks instead of one?

May I make a modest suggestion: whoever initiated the dumping of P.M.I. helped make a significant contribution to the mortgage crisis and current financial meltdown. Agree?

(Thanks to Ebby Southlake Realtor Patti Moore for sending me the photo).

“Loan originators were able to divorce themselves from risk by selling loans to Wall Street investment firms that bundled them into securities that were sought after by investors looking for better returns than Treasurys. When home prices collapsed and borrowers began defaulting, the losses on those investments and others tied to them rippled through the financial system, curtailing all types of lending.”

But I gasped yesterday when one panelist said that hidden in the fine print of the securitization process of the bundled ARMs was a non-default warranty from the loan originator of 90 days!