Inman: No Light At The End of the Tunnel

And moves by the Feds could even make this economic downturn worse, said a panel of national experts at the conclusion of day one at Inman Real Estate Connect .  This mess started, said one panelist, with a bunch of southern Californian banks who found it profitable to sell bundles of mortgage loans to investors seeking higher returns. That story is now so oft-repeated I recite it in my sleep:

“Loan originators were able to divorce themselves from risk by selling loans to Wall Street investment firms that bundled them into securities that were sought after by investors looking for better returns than Treasurys. When home prices collapsed and borrowers began defaulting, the losses on those investments and others tied to them rippled through the financial system, curtailing all types of lending.”

But I gasped yesterday when one panelist said that hidden in the fine print of the securitization process of the bundled ARMs was a non-default warranty from the loan originator of 90 days!   

November Home Sales: The Picture Isn’t Pretty

Today’s report on home sales may have us all pining for the New Year’s hangover headache, or bring on a new one: November national home sales plunged to their lowest rate since the National Association of Realtors have been keeping records. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says a home sales stimulus plan is sorely needed. I am off tomorrow morning bright and early to Inman Real Estate Connect in NYC where Robert Shiller will be speaking — as well as Mr. Yun. Coming on the heels of this downer report, it ought to be a very interesting meeting and I will keep you posted. Also at Inman: unveiling of new company launches such as Dwellicious, a social bookmarking site to help buyers search for their next home.

Mortgage Rates: What’s The Story, Glory Or Gory?

My prediction: glorious low rates in 6 months. Today was my last full day of class at Champion School of Real Estate before my elective and then — I take the state exam! I am getting my real estate license to be a better real estate reporter for the D Empire and our forthcoming new website. Learned a ton – have TOTAL new respect for agents and brokers. From remembering intermediary to sub agent to IABS forms always need to be in size 10 type to HB 489 to independent contractor status to TRELA and TREC, ostensible authority and agency by estoppel, MLS to agent with appointment, without appointment, all I know is HOW DO YOU AGENTS DO IT? And I need an appointment with a glass of wine!

But, while I was ensconced in academia, history was made in the interest-rate realm. Here a couple of takes on that, jump for one from Philip Walker, one of my favorite agents at Keller Williams Turtle Creek, who brought lunch to recruit the A-plus students. Mortgage rate comments are on and the meter is running:

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Dallas Fort Worth “Moderate” Risk of Mortgage Default And Pop Quiz

As usual, those bad boys of California, Arizona and Florida have major cities all ripe for more mortgage defaults. We are moderate, but look at McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX. Did an interview last week with someone who is developing in that area and in a word — HOT!

Pop-quiz: what is the one home market in the world where there is an under-supply of housing and the middle class is buying homes faster than the builders can build ‘em?

Have Dallas Condo Prices Increased?

Over on Frontburner, Wick Allison posted Case-Shiller’s not-so-gloomy home price numbers for Dallas — down far less than the rest of the world, as I told you. But he also found that average  Dallas condo prices were UP by 11.1 percent…which I find just plain curious.  That’s third quarter 2008 pricing with an average tag of $148,000 — ain’t exactly the Ritz. Still, any reason why coming on the heels of news that the Stoneleigh Heritage is on ice etc. etc? 

Breaking News: LFT To Close In Victory Park

Ort Barona is closing LFT at Victory January 1, starting their liquidation process sale tomorrow with merchandise — just unpacked merchandise — marked down by 25%. Chalk it up to what is quickly becoming worse than the worse four-letter word — the economy.

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