image of house

This is a prototype home about to be built down the street from me. I guess someone in our ‘hood did not like the blue roof, as they wrote “are u kidding me?” on the stone. (Yes, they did.) Today when I went to snap a pic, the writing had been wiped off. I have a feeling the taste Nazis will re-appear. In the meantime, which do you like best?

That’s right, we are getting delirious over one-half percent.

Like the caboose of a train, a little behind everyone else, I think our Dallas market peaked in 2007/early 2008.  I was in California last January when evidence of the bust was already showing.  Of course, our prices never ballooned the way the hot markets like California, Nevada, Phoenix and New York poofed up, one reason why our contraction has been much less painful.

But I am not drinking Moet just yet. Homes are selling because sellers are slashing prices — DFW home prices today more closely resemble those in the years 2003/2004. Except for buyers with large cash reserves (flush from pre-bust sales) and near perfect credit scores, loans are not flowing. Credit is still constipated. Stringent new appraisal laws are blowing many real estate deals at a time when we need them most The first time home buyers are leading most of this upturn, but the $8,000 stimulus ends January 1 — Congress would be smart to extend it one more year. Not to be Debbie Downer, but spring is like Christmas for the real estate industry. Most people who need to buy or move do so in spring and early summer, usually families who want to get settled as soon as the kids are out of school.

I think the real test will be in the fall. Autumn is when the bottom feeders come out and swoop up the bargains, especially towards the end of the year when third-quarter reports yield more depressing news and property taxes are coming due. Commercial real estate is like a Jenga tower, and my sources tell me we are in for a tsunami of commercial foreclosures. Oh and get this: commercial loans were also securitized by the Ivy League geniuses on Wall Street. (Question while I’m on the rampage: where was McKinsey & Co., that powerhouse of knowledge, when subprime etc. hit the fan?) Unemployment still haunts, despite what Al Coker told Steve Brown.  Sweeping health care legislation could sweep out even more jobs, which is the number one reason now for home foreclosures: people losing jobs cannot pay mortgages. And foreclosures — if not in Park Cities or Preston Hollow — will further erode home prices even more in areas like Duncanville, Frisco, and Little Elm.

Which could, of course, bring out even more fire-sale buyers. IF they can get mortgages. Some experts out there are saying that the Fed is keeping us from knowing the awful, ugly truth – that a whole lot of the big banks are as wobbly as the soils in Farmers Branch. I would still like to know why more TARP funds have not trickled down to the consumers for home loans.  And consumers, well, they are not really letting loose. I was at Neimans Last Call this weekend and when the 65% markdowns came on, a few bought. One clerk told me the mall was crowded with more lookers than buyers.

My most trusted financial advisors are calling it bottom. Mortgage companies are starting to work with delinquent borrowers, finding it economically more advantageous to make a deal and keep them in the house rather than add to their burgeoning inventory. (Besides, it is so hot on the courthouse steps.) Builders are slashing as much as half a million off prices and every new home start I see has an owner — the spec home is dead. We might as well carry a casket like the Hippies did at Haight-Ashbury at the end of the 60′s. I remember Della Lively telling me in 2007 that Dallas builders were living on Moet, it was really running in the streets of Park Cities and Preston Hollow. Even the teenagers were drinking it.

Now, she says, they’re all drinking beer. 

This week I’m going to ask several Dallas real estate experts if they think we have seen the bottom and when they think the upward climb will begin. Comments are open, what do you think: has the Dallas housing market hit bottom from the Great Recession of 2008?

Or will we — gasp — get even lower? Bottoms up!

Another collaberation from builder Richard Milligan and renowned interior designer Neal Stewart, this pup is nestled on a lake-skirting elevated property in the Northaven estate area a.k.a. Preston Hollow north. These guys so know what they are doing- contemporary feel but warm, inviting.  Sleek Italianate built around an interior courtyard with rectangular pool, fireplace, and seating areas; inside, large foyer, the living room with 16 foot ceilings, heavy coved crown moulding, and massive fireplace. The dining room is almost a perfect square, offering many options for table arrangement, Adjacent is a butler’s pantry with wine storage, ice maker and bar. The kitchen is a cook’s/entertainer’s dream. Get this: Wolf 48″ range, Sub-Zero refrigerator and freezer, double Miele dishwashers, and large center island. Hammered lead covered vent-a-hood, Madeira marble and Caesar stone countertops. Love the master bath, wish that that “Light Emperador” marble would sprout legs and walk to my house; love the HUGE master closet — must post photos. In all seriousness, this is one home I might actually buy. $1,890,000. Might be a little pricey, but you cannot beat this location. I can see empty nesters in this home, two bedrooms/baths upstairs to let the kiddos visit, but not live.

How much should I offer?

But the best news came from someone in the City building department, who told me that permits are UP over the same period last year.  Now that’s some good news.  Long may it continue.

And we don’t have to drive to Plano!