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Dallas Real Estate: Do You Like Roof A Or B?

image of house

This is a prototype home about to be built down the street from me. I guess someone in our ‘hood did not like the blue roof, as they wrote “are u kidding me?” on the stone. (Yes, they did.) Today when I went to snap a pic, the writing had been wiped off. I have a feeling the taste Nazis will re-appear. In the meantime, which do you like best?

Dallas Real Estate Market Comeback: Let’s Hold The Champagne For A Few Hours

Good morning! I know, everyone is getting all revved up over last weeks’ improved reports on home sales. Newsweek has called the recession officially over, and pundits are celebrating the turn-around of our real estate market, end of the recession. In Dallas, June new home sales rose 11 percent. Texas had more homebuilding permits than California and Florida combined, and Standard and Poor’s’ Case-Shiller report, God’s real estate tablet for investors, informed us national home prices rose a half a percent from April to May, the first monthly increase since 2006, the year considered by many to be the peak of the national housing boom.

That’s right, we are getting delirious over one-half percent.

Like the caboose of a train, a little behind everyone else, I think our Dallas market peaked in 2007/early 2008.  I was in California last January when evidence of the bust was already showing.  Of course, our prices never ballooned the way the hot markets like California, Nevada, Phoenix and New York poofed up, one reason why our contraction has been much less painful.

But I am not drinking Moet just yet. Homes are selling because sellers are slashing prices — DFW home prices today more closely resemble those in the years 2003/2004. Except for buyers with large cash reserves (flush from pre-bust sales) and near perfect credit scores, loans are not flowing. Credit is still constipated. Stringent new appraisal laws are blowing many real estate deals at a time when we need them most The first time home buyers are leading most of this upturn, but the $8,000 stimulus ends January 1 — Congress would be smart to extend it one more year. Not to be Debbie Downer, but spring is like Christmas for the real estate industry. Most people who need to buy or move do so in spring and early summer, usually families who want to get settled as soon as the kids are out of school.

I think the real test will be in the fall. Autumn is when the bottom feeders come out and swoop up the bargains, especially towards the end of the year when third-quarter reports yield more depressing news and property taxes are coming due. Commercial real estate is like a Jenga tower, and my sources tell me we are in for a tsunami of commercial foreclosures. Oh and get this: commercial loans were also securitized by the Ivy League geniuses on Wall Street. (Question while I’m on the rampage: where was McKinsey & Co., that powerhouse of knowledge, when subprime etc. hit the fan?) Unemployment still haunts, despite what Al Coker told Steve Brown.  Sweeping health care legislation could sweep out even more jobs, which is the number one reason now for home foreclosures: people losing jobs cannot pay mortgages. And foreclosures — if not in Park Cities or Preston Hollow — will further erode home prices even more in areas like Duncanville, Frisco, and Little Elm.

Which could, of course, bring out even more fire-sale buyers. IF they can get mortgages. Some experts out there are saying that the Fed is keeping us from knowing the awful, ugly truth – that a whole lot of the big banks are as wobbly as the soils in Farmers Branch. I would still like to know why more TARP funds have not trickled down to the consumers for home loans.  And consumers, well, they are not really letting loose. I was at Neimans Last Call this weekend and when the 65% markdowns came on, a few bought. One clerk told me the mall was crowded with more lookers than buyers.

My most trusted financial advisors are calling it bottom. Mortgage companies are starting to work with delinquent borrowers, finding it economically more advantageous to make a deal and keep them in the house rather than add to their burgeoning inventory. (Besides, it is so hot on the courthouse steps.) Builders are slashing as much as half a million off prices and every new home start I see has an owner — the spec home is dead. We might as well carry a casket like the Hippies did at Haight-Ashbury at the end of the 60’s. I remember Della Lively telling me in 2007 that Dallas builders were living on Moet, it was really running in the streets of Park Cities and Preston Hollow. Even the teenagers were drinking it.

Now, she says, they’re all drinking beer. 

This week I’m going to ask several Dallas real estate experts if they think we have seen the bottom and when they think the upward climb will begin. Comments are open, what do you think: has the Dallas housing market hit bottom from the Great Recession of 2008?

Or will we — gasp — get even lower? Bottoms up!

Dallas Real Estate Weekend Open House: Thumbs Up For Eastview Circle

Another collaberation from builder Richard Milligan and renowned interior designer Neal Stewart, this pup is nestled on a lake-skirting elevated property in the Northaven estate area a.k.a. Preston Hollow north. These guys so know what they are doing- contemporary feel but warm, inviting.  Sleek Italianate built around an interior courtyard with rectangular pool, fireplace, and seating areas; inside, large foyer, the living room with 16 foot ceilings, heavy coved crown moulding, and massive fireplace. The dining room is almost a perfect square, offering many options for table arrangement, Adjacent is a butler’s pantry with wine storage, ice maker and bar. The kitchen is a cook’s/entertainer’s dream. Get this: Wolf 48″ range, Sub-Zero refrigerator and freezer, double Miele dishwashers, and large center island. Hammered lead covered vent-a-hood, Madeira marble and Caesar stone countertops. Love the master bath, wish that that “Light Emperador” marble would sprout legs and walk to my house; love the HUGE master closet — must post photos. In all seriousness, this is one home I might actually buy. $1,890,000. Might be a little pricey, but you cannot beat this location. I can see empty nesters in this home, two bedrooms/baths upstairs to let the kiddos visit, but not live.

How much should I offer?

Could TRCC Dismantle Lead To Higher Building Costs?

Many consumer groups felt the TRCC was so builder-friendly,  it just gave victims an even bigger nightmare. But builders say letting everyone duke it out in court will  lead to higher costs for everyone. So who should regulate the home building industry: the state or the courts?

Building Notes: A Floor Safe In The Closet

Clever. A floor safe in the master closet under the carpet. You might even slide a chair over this but the non-discriminating thief might be fooled into thinking this was just the door to the crawl space under the house. Ha ha.

Crime: Staged and Open Houses

Update to my earlier posting on crime at open houses and staged builder’s homes: talked to Cliff Ellman and Jane Mills today of  Spiffi Decor – home stagers extraordinaire — and they tell me they are not putting one lick of furniture or accessory outdoors — not on the front porch, not on the patio — because those items are 100% guaranteed to disappear.

Deion Sanders at Tatum Brown, Allie Beth Allman Event

That’s Deion, me and Mark Danuser. Deion was SERIOUSLY looking at 3915 Gillon Avenue, another GORGEOUS Tatum Brown Custom Home. Everyone was there — Doris and Jack Jacobs,  Allie Beth and Pierce Allman, Stevie Chaddick,  Ben Jones, Tommy Thompson, and of course the entire Brown family. This home: $8 million and some change. Duke was there with his poor arm in a cast — now we know why Allie Beth Allman agents are topping the sales charts. (KIDDING!) Hope that arm heals lickety-split!

More Troubles For Highland Capital

$745 million more in troubles. Meantime, here are the homes for sale in Dallas that I am told by sources are backed by James Dondero, one head of the firm — each home appears to be it’s own limited liability partnership: 3500 Beverly, 4223 Bordeaux, 4041 Grassmere . These are exquisitely built and designed by Andrew Merrick Custom Homes, just waiting to be loved by a homebuyer.

Homeowners Getting Stuck With Contractor Bills?

Dream house turned nightmare. This story ran on WFAA-TV a few weeks ago, very dramatic: a physician says the builder didn’t pay his sub contractors on her $1.3 million Frisco dream house, so now they are knocking on her door, looking for payment. I have two words: Title Insurance. I may be wrong, but isn’t that why we buy title policies and aren’t they supposed to cover this kind of stuff? Wonder why the reporter didn’t ask more questions.

Real Estate Downturn: The End (Of The Bottom) Is In Sight

Using old-fashioned supply and demand, not algorithms, some experts are peeping up from the ground with word that the end of the real estate bottom may be in sight. As I noted earlier today, we have reports that home construction nationally is way down. We know it is down in Dallas. Finally we have breathing room to absorb the inventory… if anyone is lending money…

Green Building Increases In Dallas Exponentially

Just came from the Texas Green Home Summit–which had almost 700 attendees, blowing everyone’s estimates out of the water.  Mayor Leppert reaffirmed the City of Dallas’s commitment to green building, both for the health of the universe and for the bottom line.  Michelle Russo from McGraw Hill had some great data on how much green building has increased over the last couple of years and how much it’s expected to increase over time (basically becoming the only way to build), as well as what consumers are looking for.  (Presentations are expected to be posted on the website.)

But the best news came from someone in the City building department, who told me that permits are UP over the same period last year.  Now that’s some good news.  Long may it continue.

USGBC and Home Builders Team Up

Looking for info on where green building is headed in the coming year?  The US Green Building Council and the Homebuilders Association of Greater Dallas are collaborating on the 2009 Texas Green Home Summit at the Convention Center on January 29.  Mayor Leppert will speak, as will folks from the sponsoring organizations and from McGraw Hill, who have done considerable research into what buyers are looking for in “green” homes.

And we don’t have to drive to Plano!

Sotherby- Shaddock Homes

Sotherby Homes, part of Shaddock Builders and Developers, says it is suspending its home warranty program — what in the world does that means? (Update: looks like it is also suspending its website.)

Video’s Up For Local Family Getting Extreme Makeover

Talking major house plastic surgery here. Kyle and I drove out to Keller, Texas Monday afternoon to see the Augustin family off in the limo. Darn it, no Ty, no Paul, but we hear they are heading our way. Extreme Makeover: Home Edition has selected Amber and Peter’s family to be the recipients of a brand new home to replace their old one damaged by a flood last year. If you know the show, you know the routine — down comes the house in a matter of hours and working 24/7, the crew will build a new one in 106 hours… Texas-based Wall Builders know they have to finish the job on time, or else!

Let’s Not Discuss Dallas Real Estate Values Today

This is not as bad as when you get those monthly stock reports showing that all the money you’ve stashed away for retirement is down by 36%. No sir, not that bad at all. Steve Brown reports a decline in Dallas home prices of just over 2% while some Texas cities have actually seen modest increases. Don’t even ask me about the national outlook: it’s Miller Time for builders — those Dom Perignon days a recent memory. As one local home builder told me: no one is picking up a hammer. Even the Russians are having problems. I am starting my appraisal battle file right now — will keep copies of all these stories so just holler if you need. Listen up DCAD: my property taxes should be LOWERED next year, retroactive to November 19, 2008. Got that?

Dallas Home Prices Nosedive, But But But…

Remember, we are comparing to last year, one of the hottest sales years in the history of Dallas Real Estate, and maybe the world. The good news is that inventory is dwindling. Realtors have told me that folks who are not serious about selling are yanking up the for sale signs, putting them on ice. Builders are telling me that if they can hold out for about a year, 2010 will be the Comeback Kid and because there are so few housing starts now, there will be very few new homes for sale come 2010. Less inventory, stronger market, better prices. Everyone’s just taking a chill pill. P.S. Clip and save (or bookmark) this article to help fight your tax appraisal next spring.

Green Realtors

About 100 instructors and 250 Realtors took the brand-new sustainability training at the National Association of Realtors convention this week.  It was standing room only for the 15-hour core class–turns out Realtors are thinking this is the wave of the near-future and are falling over each other to get the designation.  A good thing, I think.

In addition to the core class, there’s a choice of electives–residential, commercial or property management–that can be taken in person or via webinar.  It is a HUGE amount of information.

Sebastian Construction Group Celebrates 60 Years

With a fabulous party last night at Arlington Hall at Lee Park, great food, wine and company. John, whose father started Sebastian Construction Group in 1948, is one of the city’s most high-profile builders. I’ll be posting photos of his work that were on display last night, including the Harlan Crow library. Top realtors in attendance: precious Irmgard Arthur with Allie Beth Allman, Briggs-Freeman’s Joan Eleazer who is listing French by Design design expert/author Betty Lou Phillip’s home because Betty Lou and husband John Roach are building new, and John Sebastian is their contractor. Also every great architect in town — Wilson Fuquay, Richard Drummond Davis, subs and cannot forget the folks who supply all the fixtures for Sebatian properties, Elegant Additions.

3500 Beverly Drive — Look Inside

You’ve read the article, here’s what you’ve all been waiting for — the video. PS: we took our shoes off to protect those gorgeous oak hardwood floors.

It Takes A Crisis: Homebuilder Erecting Smaller Homes

Baby steps, down to 2500 square feet from the 3000 plus-size gals.

The Economy: It’s a Hairball

Was at the MetroTex Association of Realtors’ Forecast 2009 event this morning and heard THE funniest economist (not an oxymoron, even given his message), Mark Dotzour of Texas A&M’s Real Estate Center, speak about economic trends.  What he told us was, “It’s a hairball.  We’ve been coughing on it a while and we just need to get it up and get over it.”  By which he meant that the next six to nine months won’t be any fun, but after that, we should be okay.

And David Brown of Metrostudy reminded us all how great it it to be in Texas, where even over the last year we’ve had decent job growth as well as less standing real estate inventory than almost anywhere else in the country.

What’s Happening on Cedar Hill, East of Kidd Springs Park?

I love writing this blog. Sometimes, however, agents and others get very upset with the information I disseminate. It’s a tough balance act, really, trying as best I can in a non-disclosure state to tell you what homes are REALLY selling for as I keep my finger on the industry’s pulse, which is almost as erratic as the stock market. (FYI: national home sales are up.) So this email just made my day. If anyone has any knowledge about this development, please please let us know! 

“I read your blog every day and I was wondering if you might be able to answer a question given your extensive knowledge of the real estate business.  Over on Cedar Hill, just east of Kidd Springs Park, several apartments and older homes have been demolished and the land cleared?  I walk the neighborhood regularly and am very curious as to what is being built: apartments, townhomes, or what have you.  It seems to me they will have a gorgeous and substantial frontage to the park.  They have the opportunity to do something very special.  Also, I am curious because my parents lived in one of the cleared apartments just before I was born.”

The Bush Home: Going Contemporary?

We were just discussing this: tastes in homes are leaning to contemporary. You can see it in the new homes – Austin meets Santa Barbara — and I will tell you I have not seen a turret under construction south of LBJ now for awhile. Which is why it doesn’t surprise me at all to hear that Sarah Perot was showing contemporary Preston Hollow homes to Laura Bush about a month ago, including homes by Lionel Morrison. Gosh, maybe they were down the street from me on Northaven, trotting through Darren Kozelsky’s contemporary white-bricked manse due for completion in December. Now it makes sense: yesterday, while I was touring Mark Molthan’s Luxe Showhome, after talking to Ross Perot Jr., I overheard someone say that Ross wanted to bring Sarah over to see the house.  Maybe she’s helping her “good friend” find a home in Dallas. Come to think, The Creeks of Preston Hollow would be the perfect place for the President and Mrs. Bush to buy. The lots are large and it’s seriously gated. A Houston bud tells me the President’s parents, George and Barbara, live on a cul de sac in Houston and the street was gated off (with neighbor approval) for security. Is it a pain to live next door to them, I asked? Not at all, he said. The neighbors love the extra security that kind of blankets everyone behind that gate.

Maybe they even get a discount on their home insurance?

Benjamin Moore Green Paint???

Catherine, a question about paint. Yesterday I toured the not-yet-completed Luxe showcase home in the Creeks of Preston Hollow — will be open early November for a Scottish Rite Hospital/Junior League charity event that you all must attend! Pictures forthcoming — get ready to scream, it is so amazing. Anyhew, builder Mark Molthan (who constructed 5103 Southbrook, the huge estate on Northwest Highway everyone asks me about) told me all the paint in the house is a product by Benjamin Moore that is completely green and much more costly than regular paint. Know about this? I even got some wet enamel on my fingers and may have gotten it in my mouth. Oh dear. Maybe I’ll run to the Parkland ER…