Where Do Dallas Realtors Think the Market’s Headed?
Up. Better days just ahead, or so we learn from the real estate website HomeGain’s fourth quarter report. And we can thank first time home buyers. 72 percent of Realtors think home prices will either stay the same (48 percent) or increase (24 percent) in the next six months. (Nice.) By contract, HomeGain’s third quarter survey reported that 69 percent of Realtors thought home prices would stay the same (46 percent) or increase (23 percent) versus 47 percent of Realtors who thought home prices would stay the same (36 percent) or increase (11 percent) in the first quarter survey. (Those were dark days.) Twenty one percent of Realtors surveyed said more than half of their transactions in the past three months involved a first time home buyer. Only 11 percent of Realtors surveyed said that none of their transactions involved a first time homebuyer. What does this mean? Activity is hopping in those lower-priced, entry level homes, agents are getting a bit more positive — one percent. Are we out of the woods or have we just found a clearing?
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These tidbits always get me going…
Realtors are eternal optimists. And this survey is essentially asking them: “do you want to get, or think you’ll get a raise in the near future” — Of course they’re gonna respond positively.
But just because they think its so, won’t make it so…
The best advice I’ve seen indicates that prices (across the country generally) will have *serious* downward pressure on them for the whole of 2010 — and they backed that up with sound forward looking economic analysis.
The low end is doing ok sure, but you’re talking homes below $150k… When was the last time a home valued less than $450k was discussed or even though about on this blog?
No one in the survey indicates what will drives prices up (or maintain them). But here’s 2 giant forces to drive them down: an onslaught of foreclosures starting in January; and real unemployment around 17%.
Are these the same realtors that let those sub-prime buyers sign those mortgage documents?