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D/FW Home Sales Loss

Steve Brown is reporting on Zillow’s study that showed one of every 10 homes purchased in the D/FW area during the last year sold for a loss. (Zillow report in the jump.) But here’s my beef: in San Francisco last month, I spoke with the folks at Zillow. (In fact, I heart Zillow.) But they were asking me why sales prices in Texas are so hard to unearth and why we have non-disclosure laws. Those laws make it mighty hard for Zillow to gather info. We all know, for example, that DCAD has conservative values attached to most of our properties and we like it that way. Well, all except for mine – my properties are way over-valued. So Zillow — God I hope David is not reading — is mulling some legislative involvement to help us shed those non-disclosure laws.  What do you think?

Zillow Blog

 

Second Quarter Housing Performance…Ouch

Posted: 12 Aug 2008 05:15 PM CDT

With Zillow’s Real Estate Market Reports for the second quarter of 2008, the U.S. housing market turned in another dismal quarter of performance with a year-over-year decline in the Zillow Home Value Index of 9.9 percent. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year home value declines and, as in the previous five quarters, represents another record-breaking decline, the magnitude of which has not been seen in the previous twelve years of Zillow data stretching back to 1996.

The extent of the current housing woes is revealed not just in the magnitude of the annual depreciation but also in the widespread scope of the poor performance with 140 of the 165 markets (85%) covered this quarter experiencing year-over-year declines in the Home Value Index as of the second quarter. Since the peak of the national housing market in the second quarter of 2006, home values have fallen more than 13 percent, taking values back in time to levels last seen in the fourth quarter of 2004 (see chart below).

Market performance varied widely with parts of California’s Inland Empire again topping the list of weakest markets as seen in Merced and Stockton where year-over-year declines were 40 percent and 38 percent respectively. Other large metropolitan areas hit hard with market declines included Las Vegas (-27% year-over-year decline), Los Angeles (-21%), Miami (-21%), Orlando (-20%) and Phoenix (-19%). Those few bright spots out there still experiencing positive appreciation included several metro areas in the Midwest and Southeast such as Oklahoma City (1.1%), Austin (1.2%), Chattanooga (2.9%), Mobile (3.3%), Tulsa (3.9%) and, always in the list of top performers, Grand Junction, CO (4.9%) [Can somebody in Grand Junction tell us what the magic is out there?]. See the map below for home value changes across the country.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All of this real estate depreciation was translated predictably into high rates of negative equity across the nation with more than 29 percent of homeowners who purchased in the past five years currently owing more on their mortgage than their home is currently worth (leaving them “upside down” or “underwater” on their mortgages). Among those homeowners who purchased at the height of the market in 2006, almost half (45%) are currently underwater on their mortgages.

To get more insight into the difficulties in these various markets, we began reporting this quarter on a variety of Distress Signals such as percentage of homes with declining values, percentage of homes selling for a loss, and rates of foreclosures. Nationwide, 77 percent of homes declined in value over the past year (although only 38 percent of homeowners in a recent Zillow/Harris Interactive survey believed their homes had declined in value which is a whole other story). In Q2, about a third of homes (32.7%) actually sold for less than the value for which they were purchased. In Los Angeles, more than half the homes sold in the second quarter were sold for a loss (51.1%) and in Las Vegas the percentage of homes selling for a loss reached almost 70 percent. For the nation at large, more than 18 percent of sales transactions in the second quarter were foreclosures, up markedly from just 7 percent in the second quarter of 2007. Commensurate with the large home value declines and high rates of negative equity, the metro areas of Stockton and Merced both saw foreclosure rates in excess of 50 percent for the second quarter (and percentages of homes selling for a loss of greater than 70 percent).

While predicting the bottom of the market is difficult, it’s clear that with year-over-year depreciation currently in the near double-digit range, we’re going to remain in negative territory in most of the hardest hit markets for the next several quarters (even were the market to bottom out now). And stabilization of home values must be preceded by a substantial clearing of the glut of unsold homes that is clogging a lot of these metro areas, an event which is made all the harder given the large numbers of foreclosures flooding into these same markets right now. And while negative equity is a contributing factor to foreclosure rates even in normal times, there’s anecdotal evidence that the high rates of negative equity currently seen in the market are having an independent effect on foreclosure rates by inducing homeowners who haven’t experienced an acute financial hardship that typically leads to foreclosure (e.g., job loss, death, mortgage resets making payments untenable) to walk away from their homes –  frustrated with making payments on an asset than is now worth substantially less than it was originally. All in all, not a cheery picture in this quarter’s numbers.

We offer up this data in all 165 metro markets (the most comprehensive set of real estate data you’ll find anywhere) with the hope that knowledge will set you free. Even in bad times (especially in bad times), knowledge of the local real estate market is a consumer’s best friend and it’s Zillow’s mission to provide consumers with the most detailed and up-to-date information on what’s happening in the real estate market around them.

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6 Comments to “D/FW Home Sales Loss”
  • JimK

    Love this idea, and I’m not even in the real estate business. I never really understood what the problem was with disclosing sales prices when they close. And in the end, more information, for both buyers and sellers, is a good thing, and it creates a more efficient market.

    However, having spent some time in a state where Zillow has a lot of info, I still can’t say that their values are generally even close to accurate unless the home sells once a year.

    My old home still lists as “recently sold”, even though the sale will be a year old soon. That said, I believe the 12% reduction in value since then is probably accurate, given where it is. However, the sale price was itself 10% below what Zillow said it should have been at the time of the sale and 20% below the high a year before.

  • Automation Sensation

    Oh yes, let’s dump our non-disclosure laws so that Zillow will be more accurate. Texans are private by nature and dont want everything “out there”. Go ahead Zillow, try to get this through. No doubt TAAD (www.taad.org/) will be happy to back you all the way.

    Good luck.

  • David G from Zillow.com

    Hey Candy, it’s David G from Zillow. Of course I’m reading. It was great to see you in San Fran.

    Zillow certainly supports and would encourage a change towards disclosure in those few states that currently don’t require disclosure of property transactions. Zestimate accuracy would absolutely improve in Texas if this happened but that’s obviously not the reason to argue for this change. This debate should rather focus on the improved liquidity and governance of the Texas RE market if transactions were public records.

    FYI – you’ll find the Zillow Home Value Reports for Dallas here:
    http://tinyurl.com/5wcvou
    http://tinyurl.com/57s8rr

  • Baseball Mike

    Candy,

    Isn’t the TX state legislature already considering requiring disclosure? TX is in the minority as a state that is non-disclosure.

    As for the private nature of Texans — well, move somewhere else then if disclosure becomes law.

    Disclosure can have funny affects on people — feed a market that is in the midst of a giant speculative bubble; or feed a market that is in the midst of a post-bubble collapse. Its up to everyone using the information to use it wisely.

    From a legislative perspective though — I think that the state would want to know *exactly* what people are paying for their homes so that they can maximize tax revenues.

    And I have to say, after living in MA (nicknamed Tax-achussetts) for a long time. I think everyone has it backwards — TX is misspelled; its really Tax-as…

    I think that the only people hurt by disclosure are those affiliated with the NAR and the stranglehold they’re trying to maintain on (what I feel is) public information. The more information that can be taken out of the hands of a few, and distributed equally to the many — the better off we’ll all be (which, is what Zillow, RedFin, etc are all attempting to achieve).

    Cheers!

  • Candy Evans

    Very interesting thoughts. Thank you. I, too, like having clear glass windows on information. Who do you think does it best? I went to college in “Tax-achusetts” (but was very liberal and didn’t pay taxes anyhow!) and love the lack of income taxes in Texas but oh boy, our high property taxes certainly make up for it!

  • Baseball Mike

    If you quantify the Tax-as approach, and compare it to Tax-achussetts — I think that “average” people come out much better in MA.

    Consider a family eanrs $100,000 / yr (gross), and owns a property that costs $350,000.

    Tax-wise, you’d expect this:

    MA Income Tax = $5,000
    MA Real Estate Tax = $2,500
    MA Sales tax = 5%

    MA Tax burden = $7,500

    TX Income Tax = $0
    TX Real Estate Tax = $8,500
    TX Sales tax = 8.75%

    TX Tax burden = $8,500

    If you then look at the cost to drive various roads in TX — the cost goes up again. Yes, MA has the Turnpike, and a couple of bridges. But Dallas has the PGBT, the Tollway, etc — and the cost to drive the same mileage is much higher in TX than it is in MA.

    Also, MA has much better public transit. The DART isn’t very useful, unless you live along US-75; so people are forced to own cars and crowd the roads more.

    The higher one’s income becomes — the more beneficial it becomes to live in TX (which explains why TX has the highest influx of millionaire households of any region in the US).

    The reverse holds as well — the lower one’s income the more beneficial it becomes to live in MA.

    So, for the “average Joe” — TX is just not the great deal that most people seem to believe it to be (strictly from a tax burden point of view).

    Cheers

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